FPL Draft Gameweek 10 recap

Everton created five big chances to Coventry’s three, so the win was deserved, but three goals from 1.43 xG flatters the margin. Barry’s volume makes him the clear Draft signal; the other scorers’ returns need more caution, while Awoniyi remains a patient hold.

• Barry: Five big chances underpin the haul and his season-long threat.

• Awoniyi: Four big chances but one goal suggests scope to return.

• Dewsbury-Hall: The goal came from 0.18 xG and no big chance.

• Gboho: His goal came from 0.2 xG across only two starts.

Leeds earned the win by creating four big chances to Tottenham’s one and holding them to 0.72 xG. That chance control makes the clean sheet and victory deserved rather than scoreline luck; Draft managers can trust Leeds’ defensive stream, but not Okafor’s cameo goal.

• Trafford, Bogle: Leeds’ fifth-best xGA and secure starting roles support defensive pickups.

• Calvert-Lewin: His 0.58 xGI showed the blank was not a quiet performance.

• Okafor: The goal came in 13 substitute minutes after he missed the previous gameweek.

• Gudmundsson, Tel: Hamstring and ankle issues leave both at 75% availability next round.

Arsenal controlled this but the score flattered Hull City’s resistance rather than reflecting a balanced contest: 21 shots and 1.27 xG came against 7 shots and 0.36 xG, with Hull City creating no big chances. The win is defensive signal, so trust Arsenal’s clean-sheet core rather than chase Hull City attackers.

• Gabriel, Raya: Hull City’s 0.36 xG reinforced the league-best defensive process.

• Konsa: Regular starts in the league’s best xGA defence make him a useful waiver defender.

• Madueke: Four shots underline the attacking role behind his assist.

• McBurnie: He registered no shots in a full match.

Newcastle created the clearer openings, with 3 big chances to Fulham’s none, so the draw slightly flatters the hosts despite their goal. Judged on chances rather than the score, Newcastle had the edge, but missed openings and low-volume Fulham returns make this mixed; hold process-led forwards.

• Barnes: Two big chances make the blank one to keep.

• Gonzalo: Season-long 4.05 xG from one goal still points to a return.

• Muniz: Scored from 0.15 xG after another substitute appearance.

• King: Hold through a groin injury; 75% chance of playing next round.

Forest won through ruthless finishing rather than control: three goals came from 1.06 xG and one big chance, while City created three big chances and 1.76 xG. The score is noise for Draft managers: retain City's established attackers, but do not treat Forest's haul as a new attacking baseline.

• Haaland: A big chance preserves the start case despite the blank.

• Enzo: His 0.58 xG chance supports patience after a missed opportunity.

• Delap: Two goals came from only 0.24 xG, with no big chance.

• Guéhi, Gvardiol: Both have unspecified injuries and a 75% chance of playing next round.

Groß’s penalty and Gomez’s finish settled a contest Brighton controlled, generating 2.11 xG to Brentford’s 0.59 while the visitors failed to register an effort on target. That dominance makes Brighton’s defensive and creative assets firm Draft plays, but not every scorer merits pursuit.

• Groß: Penalty duty and 1.52 xGI underline multiple routes to returns.

• De Cuyper: Started throughout and posted 0.73 xGI from defence here.

• Gomez: The goal came from 0.13 xG, extending a sizable finishing overperformance.

• Thiago: Red card brings suspension until 5 Dec, removing immediate availability.

Liverpool won through sharper finishing rather than control: both sides created 5 big chances, while Crystal Palace posted 2.62 xG to Liverpool’s 2.65. The result is therefore mixed rather than a defensive signal; Draft managers should back the leading attackers, but not chase Liverpool defenders.

• Isak: Two big chances underpin the goal and bonus.

• Wirtz: Goal and assist came from 0.46 xGI, but set pieces preserve upside.

• Yeremy: The blank masked 0.83 xGI.

• Nketiah: Scored from the bench but has only 3 starts this season.

Bournemouth created 4 big chances to Ipswich Town's 2 and deserved the victory, with Ipswich Town also undermined by an own goal. This is signal rather than a scoreline fluke: Bournemouth’s season profile is strong at both ends, so keep backing their attack and avoid Ipswich Town defensive cover.

• Evanilson: His 0.85 xG backed the goal and Bournemouth keep creating.

• Rayan: 9 big chances despite one goal make patience sensible.

• Christie: That assist came from 0.01 xA and his minutes remain uneven.

• Walton, Diop, O'Shea: Ipswich Town rank 19th for xGA, leaving little clean-sheet upside.

Sunderland earned the win rather than stole it, repeatedly breaking through a Chelsea defence that had been vulnerable across the season. Their 4 big chances to Chelsea’s 1 and 2.38 xG make this a signal for Sunderland’s leading attackers; back them, but do not buy the clean sheet.

• E.Le Fée, Brobbey: Penalty role and 2 big chances make the attack credible.

• Palmer: 30 season shots preserve his starter value despite this blank.

• Mukiele: No attacking involvement, while Sunderland rank 15th for xGA.

United controlled the volume with 3.55 xG and six big chances, but Villa’s 2.92 xG and five clear openings made the eight-goal draw less freakish than the score suggests. Back the leading attackers, but neither defence offers Draft-starting security.

• N.Jackson: Two big chances and 1.3 xG back another productive start.

• B.Fernandes: Two returns were backed by 1.56 xGI, with penalties in his role.

• Alysson: Three returns from 0.28 xGI make this haul an unsustainable chase.

• Dalot, Maguire, Yoro: United rank 17th for xGA, leaving clean sheets too unreliable.