FPL Draft Gameweek 7 recap

Chelsea earned a deserved win by limiting Everton to 0.43 xG while creating 1.47, but Neto’s two goals came from only 0.37 xG. The result is mixed: trust Chelsea’s control and Everton’s bluntness, but Draft managers should not treat the scorer’s haul as a new baseline.

• Martinez: Head injury leaves him unavailable for the next round.

• Barry: His season total of 14 big chances points to goals ahead.

• Neto: The brace heavily exceeded 0.37 xG.

• Hato: The assist came from only 0.01 expected assists.

Liverpool won through greater control and sharper finishing, but 1.64 xG only narrowly exceeded Brentford’s 0.88, while the hosts created more big chances. Brentford’s two red cards muddy the result further, making it mixed signal: keep trusted Liverpool attackers, but do not chase the scoring midfielders.

• Isak, Wirtz: Both started and supplied a return in Liverpool’s underlying edge.

• Munoz: Three goal involvements from 1.1 xGI point to unsustainable overperformance.

• Janelt, Yarmoliuk: Both are unavailable next round through suspension.

• Frimpong, Szoboszlai: New hamstring injuries leave both unavailable next round.

Fulham earned their first win by turning territory into Iwobi’s goal, while Hull City failed to register a shot on target. The chance quality makes it signal rather than a narrow-score fluke: Fulham created 4 big chances to Hull’s none, and have outperformed their results all season. Draft managers should retain Fulham’s chance-makers but exit the suspended Sessegnon.

• Gonzalo: 7 big chances and 3.46 xG have produced only one goal.

• Iwobi: Created 2 big chances alongside his goal.

• Sessegnon: Suspended until 7 Nov after his red card.

• Belloumi: 5 returns from 1.57 xGI is unsustainable, and this match offered no threat.

City won because their 6 big chances to Ipswich’s 3 made the extra goal deserved, though the visitors’ 1.86 xG kept the scoreline honest. It is mixed rather than a defensive signal: City’s attack remains startable, but their back line again conceded enough for Ipswich assets not to be dismissed.

• Haaland: The unspecified injury still carries a 75% chance of playing next round.

• Foden: A goal capped 1.15 xGI in his return to the starting lineup.

• Semenyo: A knee injury gives him a 0% chance of playing next round.

• Flemming: The goal came in 12 minutes from the bench, via a penalty.

Villa's single-goal win came from the clearer chances: they created 3 big chances while Newcastle created none, despite the hosts' 16 shots. The result is mixed: Villa's attackers earned it, but 22 big chances conceded this season mean their clean sheet is not yet a dependable Draft stream.

• Manzambi: 4 goal involvements in 3 starts justify holding through calf doubt.

• Wissa: 7 shots keep the forward worth starting despite the blank.

• N.Jackson: 4 shots and a big chance support patience after the blank.

• Wan-Bissaka: Hamstring injury rules him out until expected return on 21 Nov.

Bournemouth overwhelmed Sunderland, producing 6 big chances and 4.25 xG while allowing only 0.07 xG; the 2-0 score understated their control. That backs a signal rather than a smash-and-grab, with Bournemouth attackers and defenders worth starting while Sunderland assets need avoiding.

• Evanilson: Goal and assist were backed by 1.46 xGI in another start.

• Silva: Ever-present defender in a Bournemouth side ranked 2 for xGA.

• Rayan: 7 shots and a big chance point to a return after a goalless start.

• Danso: Red card means suspension until 31 Oct.

Brighton were deserved winners, controlling the shot count 17-5 and allowing Crystal Palace only one big chance, but five goals from 2.28 xG makes the margin flattering. Their league-leading attack remains a Draft signal, while the individual hauls need separating from sustainable roles; back Brighton defenders and treat the forward returns selectively.

• Vuskovic: Ever-present in Brighton’s five clean sheets, with defensive-contribution returns adding a useful floor.

• De Cuyper: Five clean sheets and regular set pieces sustain his defensive and attacking upside.

• Kostoulas: Seven goal involvements from 1.95 xGI show unsustainable finishing and assist returns.

• Richards, Mitchell, Canvot: Crystal Palace rank 20th for xGA, leaving their defenders without a reliable clean-sheet floor.

Leeds created the better openings, posting 1.41 xG to Manchester United's 0.92, but each side produced 2 big chances and converted once. That makes the draw mixed rather than a clear result signal: keep the central scorers, while Manchester United's defence remains a poor Draft start.

• Calvert-Lewin: Penalty duties and 7 big chances make the goal repeatable.

• Mbeumo: Two big chances here reinforce his 8 big chances this season.

• Tielemans: Created 2 big chances and supplied the assist.

• Dalot, Maguire, Yoro: Manchester United have conceded 10 goals this season, limiting clean-sheet upside.

Arsenal won through their only big chance, while Forest’s 14 shots produced none and little threat of an equaliser. The narrow margin was fair on chance quality rather than dominant, but Arsenal’s league-best defensive record makes the clean sheet a useful Draft signal; back their defence and stay patient with Forest’s regular attackers.

• Raya, Gabriel: Arsenal are joint-best for fewest big chances conceded this season.

• Delap, Ndoye: Forest have scored 5 goals from 11.5 xG; both remain regular starters.

• Madueke: The winner came from only 0.06 xG.

• Saka: Seven big chances and 3.63 xG still support an attacking return.

Spurs won through ruthless finishing rather than chance volume: three goals arrived from 0.86 xG and no big chances, while Coventry produced 0.77 xG and their one big chance. That makes the scoreline mostly noise for Draft managers, though Rudoni’s sustained involvement is worth noting.

• Rudoni: Five big chances and 3.01 xGI show a repeatable attacking role.

• Solanke: Four big chances this season support patience after another full start.

• Marmoush: The goal came from 0.06 xG, and he has a new calf injury.

• Robertson, Tosin, Udogie: New foot, calf and knee injuries leave each at 75% to play next round.