FPL Draft Gameweek 5 recap

Brentford earned the win through sustained chance quality, creating 4 big chances and 2.9 xG while Chelsea generated only 0.85. Their season profile supports the result rather than a fluke, making Brentford starters usable, though Schade’s haul was far better than his creative output.

• Thiago: Five big chances and 3.13 xG have produced only one goal this season.

• Kelleher: Brentford rank fourth for xGA, and he has started every match.

• Schade: Two assists came from 0.02 expected assists, extending an unsustainable return gap.

• Damsgaard: Listed at 75% after an unspecified injury; wait for availability before deciding.

Villa took a 3-2 win despite Spurs generating 4 big chances to their 2 and 1.56 xG to 1.16. That makes the result mixed: Villa finished efficiently, while Spurs’ improved attack is a usable signal, so retain their creators rather than chase every away haul.

• N.Jackson: Six shots and a big chance back the goal.

• Sávio: Created a big chance and posted 0.46 xGI without a return.

• Manzambi: The 13-point haul came in only his first start.

• Pedro Porro: Hamstring issue leaves him at 75% for next round.

Brighton won through clinical finishing rather than control, converting three goals from 1.32 xG while Arsenal generated 1.63 xG. The visitors still created two big chances, so this is a mixed result: keep Arsenal attackers involved in the chances, but do not chase Brighton’s scoreline-driven hauls.

• Havertz: His 0.78 xG warrants patience, though the hamstring issue needs monitoring.

• Saka: A blank masked 0.88 xGI and sustained set-piece involvement.

• Groß: The goal and assist came from only 0.36 xGI.

• Vuskovic, Boscagli: The clean sheet came despite conceding 1.63 xG.

Everton earned the win by creating five big chances to Ipswich Town’s one and posting 2.24 xG to 1.44, with Barry taking the decisive opening. That makes the attack a signal, but the clean sheet less so; Draft managers should back Everton’s forwards rather than chase defensive points.

• Barry: Three big chances confirm his persistent penalty-box role.

• Dewsbury-Hall: Produced 0.71 xGI without a return, so the blank should not alter plans.

• Tarkowski: The assist carried only 0.01 expected assists, making the haul highly unlikely to repeat.

• Fatawu: Suspended until 17 Oct after his red card.

Newcastle took the points through sharper finishing, but Hull created the stronger overall chance picture with 22 shots and 1.59 xG to Newcastle’s 1.44. That makes the home win a mixed signal: keep Newcastle’s reliable attackers, but do not treat the scoreline as evidence of defensive control.

• Wissa: The missed penalty masked 0.84 xG and continued secure starting minutes.

• Belloumi: Started again and led Hull’s attack with 5 shots and an assist.

• Barnes: Two assists came from only 0.11 expected assists.

• Hall: The goal came from 0.19 xG, despite useful set-piece involvement.

Coventry won through Dasilva’s finish from Rushworth’s pass, but Forest controlled the better of a low-quality contest: 24 shots and 1.1 xG to Coventry’s 0.67. The clean sheet is mixed signal rather than a defensive turnaround, so Draft managers should retain Forest’s underlying contributors and resist the away hauls.

• Gibbs-White: Created six key passes, including Forest’s only big chance.

• Murillo: Forest remain best in the league for big chances conceded.

• Dasilva: The goal and clean sheet came despite conceding 1.1 xGA.

• Rushworth: The assist had no expected-assist backing.

Neither side found a finish and the draw broadly reflected an even chance split: Leeds posted 1.31 xG to Palace’s 1.06. Leeds’ clean sheet supports season-long defensive results, but Palace’s does not erase broader concession risk; Draft managers should back Leeds assets rather than Palace defenders.

• Calvert-Lewin: His missed big chance fits 6 season big chances.

• Trafford: Leeds have conceded 3 goals all season.

• Mitchell, Richards, Canvot: The clean sheet came despite the side ranking 20 for xGA.

• Khalaili: His hamstring issue gives a 75% chance of playing next round.

Manchester City won through clinical finishing rather than control: their five goals came from 2.82 xG, while Sunderland created 3.61 xG and 8 big chances. Sunderland’s attacking output has built across the opening weeks, making this a mixed result: keep City’s elite forward, but target Sunderland’s creative supply and do not chase City midfield hauls.

• Haaland: His 1.09 xG sustains the goal despite a quieter points return.

• Brobbey: Hamstring issue leaves him at 75% for the next round.

• E.Le Fée: Created 2 big chances and remains central to Sunderland’s chance creation.

• Semenyo: An ankle issue aside, three returns came from only 0.33 xGI.

Liverpool won because Isak converted their clearest opening, and 1.65 xG to Bournemouth's 0.79 shows they created more. Both sides still produced a big chance, so this was a controlled rather than dominant win, reinforcing Liverpool’s defensive starters while keeping Bournemouth attackers matchup-dependent.

• Isak: Thigh issue merits caution, but 0.75 xG backed the decisive goal.

• A.Becker, Virgil: The clean sheet aligns with Liverpool’s strong season xGA.

• Gakpo: Ankle concern tempers a hold; 0.69 xGI still showed useful involvement.

• Scott: Thigh issue and returns beyond chance quality make him a poor target.

Cunha’s finish and Martinez’s own goal settled an even draw, despite United’s territorial control. Fulham created 3 big chances to United’s 2 and edged xG 1.62 to 1.6, so the score was broadly fair; Draft managers should back repeatable chances, not isolated hauls.

• B.Fernandes, Mbeumo: Both remain central to an attack ranked 3 for season xG.

• Gonzalo: Produced 1.02 xGI in another start.

• Rashford: Created 0.53 xGI before the reported knock.

• Cunha: The goal came from just 0.05 xG, with bonus inflating the haul.